What is the 4% Rule for Withdrawals in Retirement? - Withdrawal Rules (2024)

What is the 4% Rule for Withdrawals in Retirement?

Dec 13, 2023

What is the 4% Rule for Withdrawals in Retirement? - Withdrawal Rules (1)Saving for retirement is not easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. How much of your savings can you withdraw each year? Withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money. Withdraw too little and you may miss out on a more comfortable retirement lifestyle.

For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been the “4% rule,” which suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. This guideline can be helpful in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income your savings might provide. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,000 of income in the first year with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.

The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying 4% is too low and others saying it’s too high. The most recent analysis comes from the man who invented it, financial professional William Bengen, who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research.

Original research

Bengen first published his findings in 1994, based on analyzing data for retirements beginning in 51 different years, from 1926 to 1976. He considered a hypothetical, conservative portfolio comprising 50% large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968, the beginning of a bear market and a long period of high inflation. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more.1

Of course, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen suggested the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprising 30% large-cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries.2

New research

In October 2020, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (annual change in the Consumer Price Index). In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, and sustaining increased withdrawals over time may be more difficult. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000 with a 2% increase.

To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.

5% rule?

Again using historical data — for retirement dates from 1926 to 1990 — Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.3

For most of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession.4-5In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years.6While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment.

One caveat is that current market valuation is extremely high: The S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19 at the end of 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen’s research.7His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5%.8(Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020.)9Bengen’s research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. On the other hand, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5%.10

It’s important to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, such as market performance.

Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve investment results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.

For more insights and resources, be sure to sign up for ourWeekly Market Commentary. Follow our YouTube channel where we regularly postour Epic Market Minute videos. Follow us onLinkedIn, or like us onFacebook. And as always, please don’t hesitate to reach out to a dedicated service professional atEpic Capital.

All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.
1-2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 20203-4, 6, 8, 10)Financial Advisor,October 20205, 9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20207) multpl.com, December 31, 2020

Tags: Certified Financial Planner Charlotte NC, Investing, Personal Finance, Retirement Planning, Retirement Tax Savings, Wealth Building

What is the 4% Rule for Withdrawals in Retirement? - Withdrawal Rules (2024)

FAQs

What is the 4% Rule for Withdrawals in Retirement? - Withdrawal Rules? ›

What does the 4% rule do? It's intended to make sure you have a safe retirement withdrawal rate and don't outlive your savings in your final years. By pulling out only 4% of your total funds and allowing the rest of your investments to continue to grow, you can budget a safe withdrawal rate for 30 years or more.

What is the 4 rule for retirement withdrawal calculator? ›

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement.

How does the 4% withdrawal rule work? ›

The 4% rule says people should withdraw 4% of their retirement funds in the first year after retiring and take that dollar amount, adjusted for inflation, every year after. The rule seeks to establish a steady and safe income stream that will meet a retiree's current and future financial needs.

Why the 4 withdrawal rule is wrong? ›

The most dramatic pitfall may be that the 4% rule fails to account for the portfolio's actual performance year after year. Because the clients don't consider their actual investment earnings during retirement, it's possible that they could end up withdrawing much more, or much less, than they safely should have.

What is the 4% rule on $100,000? ›

You have $100,000 saved at retirement. You take $4,000 per year of income for each $100,000 you have (that's 4% of $100,000). If you have $500,000 saved for retirement, that's $20,000 of annual income from your investments. If you have $1 million, that's $40,000 per year.

Who came up with the 4% rule for retirement? ›

William P. Bengen is a retired financial adviser who first articulated the 4% withdrawal rate ("Four percent rule") as a rule of thumb for withdrawal rates from retirement savings; it is eponymously known as the "Bengen rule".

At what age is 401k withdrawal tax free? ›

401(k) withdrawals after age 59½

Once you reach 59½, you can take distributions from your 401(k) plan without being subject to the 10% penalty. However, that doesn't mean there are no consequences. All withdrawals from your 401(k), even those taken after age 59½, are subject to ordinary income taxes.

Which is the biggest expense for most retirees? ›

Housing—which includes mortgage, rent, property tax, insurance, maintenance and repair costs—is the largest expense for retirees. More specifically, the average retiree household pays an average of $17,472 per year ($1,456 per month) on housing expenses, representing almost 35% of annual expenditures.

What is a good monthly retirement income? ›

Average Monthly Retirement Income

According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.

How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›

Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) data estimates that just 3.2% of Americans have $1 million or more in their retirement accounts. Here's how much most Americans have saved and what you can do to boost your retirement savings. Don't miss out: Click to see our list of best high-yield savings accounts.

What is a safe withdrawal rate for age 70? ›

Late Retirement (age 70): If you're fortunate to have a robust portfolio in your late 70s and beyond, you might feel comfortable increasing your withdrawal rate. Our case study suggest that a pre-tax withdrawal rate of 5% or higher might be possible.

How long will $1 million last in retirement? ›

Around the U.S., a $1 million nest egg can cover an average of 18.9 years worth of living expenses, GoBankingRates found. But where you retire can have a profound impact on how far your money goes, ranging from as a little as 10 years in Hawaii to more than than 20 years in more than a dozen states.

How long will $400,000 last in retirement? ›

This money will need to last around 40 years to comfortably ensure that you won't outlive your savings. This means you can probably boost your total withdrawals (principal and yield) to around $20,000 per year. This will give you a pre-tax income of almost $36,000 per year.

How do I calculate the 4% rule? ›

4% rule calculation. Start by adding up all your investments, retirement accounts, and residual income. Calculate 4% of that total, and that's the budget for your first year of retirement. After each year, you adjust for inflation.

What percentage of retirees have $2 million dollars? ›

According to EBRI estimates based on the latest Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million in their retirement accounts, while just 0.1% have $5 million or more.

Do you run out of money with the 4% rule? ›

This rule aims to provide retirees high confidence that they won't outlive their savings for 30 years. Though popular, it has faced criticism in recent years due to forecasts for lower returns on investments. But some financial experts say that the 4% rule may be safe again due to higher bond yields.

What is the 4% rule the easy answer to how much do I need for retirement? ›

The common answer to this question is 25 times what you spend every year (the 4% rule).

What is the formula for retirement withdrawal rate? ›

Calculating the safe withdrawal rate can be as simple as using the 4 percent rule, a classic rule of thumb for financial planners. The 4 percent rule refers to withdrawing 4 percent of your portfolio's balance the first year of retirement, using the portfolio's balance when you retire to calculate your withdrawals.

What is the 4 percent rule for 500000? ›

If you have $500,000 in savings, then according to the 4% rule, you will have access to roughly $20,000 per year for 30 years. Retiring early will affect the amount of your Social Security benefit. Retiring at 45 years of age will reduce your prime earning years and added savings.

What are the alternatives to the 4% rule? ›

Adjustments And Alternatives To The 4% Rule

Alternatives include dynamic spending strategies and a reliance on a total return approach rather than a strict withdrawal percentage, adapting to market fluctuations and personal circumstances.

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