Straight-up NFL Picks, Week 5: A Browns upset and some unearned confidence in the Packers? (2024)

0-AND-4. ZERO FOR FOUR. THAT IS HOW I’VE DONE WITH THE PICK I’M MOST CONFIDENT IN EACH WEEK TO START 2022.

That’s stunning. Just incredible stuff. Last week I bought into the Lions hype and watched as Geno Smith became the league’s best quarterback. I warned y’all to fade me, and now I’ll do it again. This pick is a big ol’ mess.

Allow me to use this opportunity to apologize to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who in no way, shape or form should lose this game. The Jags have superior talent just about everywhere. They should be motivated after blowing a massive opportunity in Philadelphia thanks to five Trevor Lawrence turnovers. Christian Kirk and James Robinson have to rise back up after underwhelming performances.

The Texans, with their 27th-ranked defense, are a perfect place for that.

However, we also have to consider that Jacksonville, for whatever reason, succumbs to nervous diarrhea every time it faces Houston. The Jags haven’t beaten the Texans since 2017 (0-8). They’re 4-19 against them since 2011. This includes two wins last year where, and I cannot stress this enough, the Texans were a scrambled pile of mostly unwanted players rather than a football team.

So, if you’re looking for a big payout that Houston moneyline clocks in at +275. I wouldn’t do it, but you’d have plenty of cash right now if you kept betting on the things I wouldn’t do.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 0-4 (.000)

Crazy, right? This isn’t an overreaction to the Giants’ 3-1 record either. New York’s wins have mostly been over disheveled teams … but Green Bay is a disheveled team.

The Packers have yet to get a full four quarter effort from their offense as Aaron Rodgers has slowly adjusted to a Davante Adams-less receiving corps. Green Bay ranks 21st in scoring offense and 14th in passing offense DVOA. Maybe a showdown with a spritely, but undermanned Giants defense is the cure for that, but it feels like this will be more of a grind-it-out affair than a fireworks show.

That’s great for a New York team that finished Week 4 with zero healthy quarterbacks. Daniel Jones won’t be at full strength in London but he may not have to be. The Giants have gained more yards on the ground than anyone this season, led by current rushing leader Saquon Barkley. Now he faces a defense that ranks 28th against the run while giving up nearly five yards per carry.

This suggests Sunday’s game will be closer than expected. Rodgers remains an asset when it comes to winning ugly — see last week’s overtime escape vs. the Patriots — so I’m not abandoning Green Bay. I’m just saying, that New York spread looks reaaaalllllly intriguing.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-2 (.500)

Let’s stick with the trend of potent tailbacks chewing up questionable run defenses. The Chargers nearly gave up a 21-0 lead to the Texans — the Texans! — thanks in part to Dameon Pierce’s ability to run for 131 yards on 14 carries. Even if you discount his 75-yard touchdown in the second quarter, he still gashed LA for 4.7 yards per carry and six handoffs that went for at least seven yards.

Now that defense gets to face Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who’ve averaged just under 165 rushing yards between them per game in 2022.

That should help Cleveland dictate the pace. Taking an early lead would take some pressure off Jacoby Brissett’s shoulders and force the Chargers into more passing downs — though a rush offense that’s averaging 2.7 yards per carry may have the same effect. That would allow Justin Herbert room to thrive, sure, but also give a hopefully-healthy Myles Garrett lots of opportunity to beat an offensive line missing top left tackle Rashawn Slater and pump up his sack/QB hit numbers.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 1-3 (.250)